Fine Forecasts
February 23, 2000, By Barry Simon, PC Magazine

Yogi Berra once remarked that prediction is difficult--especially about the future. But making predictions is exactly what businesses need to do to plan for the future. Intelligent prediction is based on historical data and requires proper tools to analyze seasonal aspects and overall trends. Business Forecast Systems' Forecast Pro, a major player in the forecasting market, was recently released in two versions-the base product Forecast Pro Version 4.0 ($595 list) and Forecast Pro XE Version 4.0 ($995).

To use the product, one loads data consisting of dates and measured values for those dates. One then chooses a forecasting method, and the program computes expected future values and confidence intervals ranging from 5 to 95 percent. You can have the program choose the method for you automatically from among the available methods or override the default choice. Among the available methods are several types of exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins, curve fitting, and Cronston's sparse data method.

Forecast Pro XE adds some additional methods: Dynamic regressions and Census X-11 as well as allowing for multilevel exponential smoothing and the possibility of adding special event tags to data (such as a strike or a sales promotion). Forecast Pro XE also allows more variables in batch processing (100 versus 10 in the base version). To choose a method rather than relying on an automatic mode, you obviously need to have a basic forecasting background. But if not, an appendix in the manual provides an excellent start on that process.

New to this version are improved algorithms for the expert user that chooses the method in automatic mode, three new variants of exponential smoothing, and four curve-fitting methods. If you need to change graph information, you can simply click and drag data points on any graph. You can switch between graphs for several variables by using familiar back and forward arrows. Version 4.0 also lets you hold out a subset of the data in a forecast. The remaining data can then be used to forecast--and you can see how the data computed closely matches the data held out.

Business Forecast Systems has not fully addressed Forecast Pro's weaknesses in reading and writing data. Although you can import data from Microsoft Excel, Lotus 1-2-3, or ASCII, and the program supports ODBC, you still need to obtain and configure the necessary drivers. It would also be good to have at least Microsoft Access and dBASE support. As for writing reports, you are limited to space-delimited ASCII, which is inconvenient if you want to use the output in a report with proportional fonts. It should be possible at least to save the report as a Microsoft Word table. These complaints are minor, though. This is an excellent product that is simple to use.

Forecast Pro 4.0. List price: $595 for basic version; $995 for Forecast Pro XE. Requires: 8MB RAM, 4MB hard disk space, Microsoft Windows 9x or NT 4.0. Business Forecast Systems, Belmont, MA; 617-484-5050